By the time November rolled around, diners had accepted a new reality: The surge in menu prices may have slowed, but the costs themselves weren’t going anywhere. After two years of steady inflation and turbulent commodity markets, the typical weeknight meal out now simply costs — and that higher baseline is beginning to feel permanent.

At the same time, many Americans are heading into the end of the year with less confidence than they had just a few months ago. Recent ConsumerWise research from McKinsey shows a subtle but important emotional shift: By the fourth quarter, pessimism outweighed optimisma reversal from early fall as households reassessed their spending. Yet rather than giving up restaurant meals altogether, people are recalibrating — choosing their moments, trimming the extras, and redefining what counts as “worth it.”

Those small decisions are happening against a backdrop of persistent inflation. Morningstar projects a 3.1% year-over-year rise in the Consumer Price Index for November, echoing the broader pattern of higher costs settling into place rather than rolling back.

That same dynamic shows up in Toast’s Menu Price Monitorwhich tracks menu pricing trends across the restaurant industry using aggregated sales data from restaurants on its platform. The report covers pricing across roughly 156,000 locations, offering a broad view of what diners are encountering on menus right now. And while the numbers don’t deliver dramatic shock value, but their steadiness tells the story.

Take the classic restaurant burger. Its median price in November ticked up only slightly, reaching $14.57 — just 0.3% above October. On its own, the increase barely registers. But compared with last year, burger prices are up 3%, a sign of how elevated beef costs and tight cattle supplies have quietly reshaped what “normal” looks like on the menu.

Coffee shows an even clearer example of stubborn pressures. Cold brew rose to a median of $5.54, while a regular hot coffee hit $3.59. The month-to-month changes were small, but year-over-year increases of 4.5% and 3.5% reflect the long tail of weather disruptions in Brazil and Colombia, which continue to tighten supply. While coffee commodity prices have eased in recent weeks, falling to their lowest level since October, that relief doesn’t show up right away in your morning macchiato. Menu prices move cautiously — and once a price goes up, it rarely snaps back.

Other menu staples followed similar patterns. Chicken wings dipped briefly in October before climbing again in November to $13.79, up 0.5% month over month and 1.8% year over year — a seasonal swing familiar to both operators and football fans. Burritos held steady at $13.43, unchanged from October but still 3.0% higher than a year ago, reflecting earlier 2024 spikes in rice, beef, and avocado prices that pushed costs up. Beer also held firm at $6.50, flat month over month and 2.2% higher than last year — a price that has persisted as breweries continue to face tariffs, higher aluminum costs, and rising labor expenses.

None of these numbers roar; they murmur. But together, they reveal the quiet way inflation embeds itself into everyday life. Not through dramatic monthly hikes, but through prices that inch upward, settle in, and refuse to come back down.

And diners, for their part, are adjusting in equally subtle ways. They skip the add-on. They switch the drink. They stick with the item that still feels like value. A month like November — steady, unremarkable, expensive — is how higher prices become the backdrop rather than the headline.

It’s not the peaks that define this moment, but the plateau.